Xbox One sales are going up in its sixth year and PS4 is setting a new sales record, which is making it harder to predict consoles sales right now, says NPD Analyst.
According to Mat Piscatella, the iterative hardware upgrades by Sony and Microsft have basically made it harder to predict sales based on a traditional console life cycle. It is no longer possible to determine where a console will end up sales wise based on historical performance of their predecessor or rivals during a similar time frame.
PS4 is on pace to set a new sales record for October while Xbox One is also holding strong in the United States. No one predicted this result in the 5th year of the consoles.
The first few years of the cycle did look normalized, but now? Basically, you have a normalized curve covering the first 4 years or so, and then it's like a kid took a crayon and just started drawing whatever lines they liked. Highly unpredictable.
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) November 20, 2018
Now, due to the iteratives (Pro and X) and bigger consumer response to promotion, we're seeing those normalized curves be no longer useful. Xbox One sales being up so dramatically in its 6th calendar year, for example, or PS4 setting new records.
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) November 20, 2018
Sony is also trying to capitalize on their success of the PlayStation 4 and Marvel’s Spider-Man with a bundle that features the game along with 1 TB PS4 Slim just for $199. Microsoft has similarly a lot of deals lined up including Xbox One S with Forza Horizon 4 and Fallout 76 among others.
Compared to Sony and Microsoft, the offer by Nintendo is a rather tame one with a Mario Kart bundle for $299, but they have always asked for a premium on their software and their games still sell a crazy amount. This bundle is going to be a success for them leading into the holiday.
